![\"Map](\"http:\/\/www.matthewvandyke.com\/images\/countries-support-assad-syria.png\" "\\"Map")
The most influential countries supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad<\/p><\/div>\n
Russia and China<\/p>\n
Russia is engaged in a desperate bid for survival and relevancy in a rapidly changing world.\u00a0 It has declined from a world superpower to a flawed, corrupt, quasi-democratic, largely dysfunctional shadow of its former self that is desperately grasping at spheres of influence that are steadily shrinking away.\u00a0 Most of these spheres of influence are in the Arab world, Asia, and Africa, where the Russians maintain significant economic and military interests.\u00a0 In Syria, these include billions of dollars in defense contracts<\/a> and Russia\u2019s only Mediterranean naval base (at the Syrian port of Tartus.)<\/p>\n China is a rising power with similar economic and military interests in Syria.\u00a0 More importantly, both Russia and China realize that the Arab Spring is just the beginning of a wave of revolutions likely to spread across the globe, and that eventually the Arab Spring will morph into a Russian and Chinese Spring that will land at their doorsteps<\/a>.\u00a0 They will do whatever they can, from obstructing the United Nations to advising, arming<\/a>, and supporting authoritarian regimes, in order to slow the advance of democracy around the world.<\/p>\n Iran<\/p>\n Iran and Syria have an extremely close relationship that has endured for over 30 years.\u00a0 They are both ruled by Shia Muslims, are opponents of Israel, and provide funding and weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.\u00a0 Iran will do everything in its power to prevent the fall of the Assad regime because it would eliminate their strongest Arab ally, choke off Hezbollah, deny them territory from which to launch attacks against Israel, and drastically reduce Iranian influence in the Arab Middle East.\u00a0 Iran also fears that once Syria falls, Iran will be among the next countries to experience a popular uprising that threatens their own regime.<\/p>\n Iraq<\/p>\n Iraq, run by a Shia-dominated government that maintains a close relationship with Iran, has supported Assad throughout the uprising.\u00a0 Iraq fears that a civil war punctuated by sectarian conflict between Shia and Sunni could spill over the border and reignite more serious problems in Iraq. \u00a0There is no doubt that close ties with Iran also guide their support of the Assad regime.<\/p>\n Hezbollah<\/p>\n Hezbollah receives support from Syria, and funding and weapons from Iran.\u00a0 The removal of Assad would be devastating to them, and if it paved the way for regime change in Iran as well, the organization would be unlikely to survive.<\/p>\n Lebanon<\/p>\n Hezbollah\u2019s political alliance, \u201cMarch 8,\u201d has been the ruling coalition in Lebanon since 2011.\u00a0 Although the rival \u201cMarch 14\u201d Alliance and the majority of Lebanon\u2019s population support the uprising against Assad, Hezbollah will use their political power to keep Lebanon in Assad\u2019s corner, or at least on the sidelines.<\/p>\n Team Free Syrian Army<\/strong><\/p>\n The most influential countries supporting the Free Syrian Army<\/p><\/div>\n The West<\/p>\n The United States and Europe are driven by a belief in democracy and human rights<\/a>.\u00a0 Although they have turned a blind eye to many protest movements in the past and considered regional stability their main priority (as evidenced by the tepid response to Egypt\u2019s uprising against Mubarak), public outcry driven by social media has combined with a realization that the Arab Spring is unstoppable and that their political, economic, and strategic interests are best served by allying with the winning side (the revolutionaries) who will form the governments of the future.<\/p>\n The United States and Europe also want to remove Assad because it would severely weaken Iran strategically and politically.\u00a0 Regime change in Syria, combined with economic sanctions, the covert war currently being waged against Iran, and the likelihood that Iranian nuclear facilities will be bombed within the next year, could help incite an Iranian Spring and the downfall of the regime<\/a>.<\/p>\n The West\u2019s enthusiasm for the revolution in Syria is nevertheless tempered by concerns that a militarized, post-Assad Syria could result in a failed state that would be disastrous for regional security, especially for the security of Israel.\u00a0 The fact that Syria has one of the largest chemical weapons programs in the world and the likelihood that some of these weapons will end up in the hands of terrorists after the war ends dramatically exacerbates those concerns.<\/p>\n Al-Qaeda<\/p>\n Assad\u2019s regime is among several secular governments in the Middle East that have long been on al-Qaeda\u2019s target list.\u00a0 They are especially motivated to fight since Assad and his regime are Alawite Shia Muslims, considered heretics by al-Qaeda.\u00a0 Al-Qaeda views Syria as an opportunity to join the right side of a popular revolution, and by doing so gain popularity and new recruits, weapons, and influence.\u00a0 The overthrow of Assad is also central to their belief system, as the Islamic faith mandates helping oppressed Muslims.<\/p>\n Turkey<\/p>\n Turkey has no interest in a protracted, years-long civil war on its border.\u00a0 But the calculations that led them to provide sanctuary to the Free Syrian Army run much deeper.\u00a0 Turkey has had a contentious relationship with Syria and Iran over their neighbors\u2019 sponsorship of Kurdish PKK insurgents who are fighting Turkey\u2019s government.\u00a0 Turkey now sees an opportunity to cut off the PKK\u2019s funding and supply lines by removing Assad from power.\u00a0 They have gone all-in on the Syrian uprising, as an Assad victory would be a significant boost to the PKK, and result in a contentious relationship that could impact regional trade for years.<\/p>\n The GCC<\/p>\n The Gulf Cooperation Council, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar as its most vocal critics of Assad, is siding with the Syrian protestors because the majority of them are Sunni, and because they want good relations with the new government after Assad falls.\u00a0 They also want to weaken Iran.\u00a0 While it may seem hypocritical for the authoritarian regimes of the GCC to be supporting popular uprisings, they have calculated that it is better to be seen as supportive of the Arab Spring, thereby diminishing calls for reform in their own countries.<\/p>\n The Game Has Begun…<\/strong><\/p>\n All of these players in the Syrian game make the debate about foreign intervention rather meaningless.\u00a0 Foreign intervention is already taking place.\u00a0 The United Nations has been rendered useless by Russian and Chinese obstructionism<\/a>, and the game is now being played through covert action, supplying weapons to the rebels, and diplomatic maneuvering.\u00a0 The players of this game intend to win at almost any cost.\u00a0 Although the outcome of the Syrian Civil War appears to favor the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, the amount of time it takes and the number of lives that are lost will be largely dependent on who plays the game the best.<\/p>\n The Lebanese Civil War should serve as a cautionary tale for foreign intervention in Syria.\u00a0 That proxy war lasted 15 years with over 1 million killed or wounded.\u00a0 The similar demographics and sectarian divisions in Syria virtually ensure a repeat scenario if the international community plays the game the same way in Lebanon.<\/p>\n The countries that support a free Syria must intervene in an unambiguous, direct way that signals a full commitment to the removal of Assad.\u00a0 The Syrian rebels must consolidate under the banner of the Free Syrian Army.\u00a0 Once they have done this, they must be well-equipped with all of the weapons<\/a>, ammunition, intelligence, and supplies needed to defeat Assad as quickly as possible.<\/p>\n Foreign intervention in Libya helped us win the war far more quickly and with fewer casualties than would have been possible on our own<\/a>.\u00a0 The NATO campaign was not only strategically important, but it signaled an international commitment to the removal of Gaddafi that led to far more Libyans joining the rebel ranks.\u00a0 Once this happened,\u00a0we were unstoppable.<\/p>\n The international community has the ability, and the obligation, to ensure that the outcome of the Syrian Civil War looks like Libya, not Lebanon.<\/p>\n Matthew VanDyke with his Kawasaki KLR650 motorcycle at the Castle of Assassins in Musyaf, Syria<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Syria Game The leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, recently called on Al-Qaeda fighters to join the revolution in Syria and help overthrow Bashar al-Assad.\u00a0 That the United States and al-Qaeda find themselves on the same side in Syria highlights … Continue reading ![\"Map](\"http:\/\/www.matthewvandyke.com\/images\/countries-support-free-syrian-army.png\" "\\"Map")
![\"Matthew](\"http:\/\/www.matthewvandyke.com\/images\/matthew-vandyke-kawasaki-klr650-motorcycle-assassins-castle-musyaf-syria.jpg\" "\\"Matthew")
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