{"id":116,"date":"2012-03-08T10:45:17","date_gmt":"2012-03-08T15:45:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.matthewvandyke.com\/?p=116"},"modified":"2012-05-08T09:52:14","modified_gmt":"2012-05-08T13:52:14","slug":"regime-change-iran-nuclear-program","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.matthewvandyke.com\/blog\/regime-change-iran-nuclear-program\/","title":{"rendered":"Only Regime Change Will End Iran’s Nuclear Program"},"content":{"rendered":"

Only Regime Change Will End Iran’s Nuclear Program<\/h1>\n
\"Matthew

Matthew VanDyke with a mural of Grand Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran<\/p><\/div>\n

As happens so often in politics, the complex issue of how to halt Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions has been diluted into two simplistic, opposing viewpoints.\u00a0A decade\u00a0of negotiations and diplomatic wrangling have produced few results, leading to the emergence of two camps: those who want even tougher sanctions, and those who want a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Neither of these options will stop Iran from acquiring the capacity to build nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

Sanctions<\/strong><\/p>\n

The diplomats<\/a>, led by the United States, point to the effects that the current sanctions have had on Iran\u2019s currency, inflation rate, and oil production. Iranians are certainly feeling the impact on their lives. But is the regime?<\/p>\n

Not really. Many countries won\u2019t enforce the oil sanctions (including China), which leaves Iran with more than enough customers to sustain its government. Iran has been under sanctions before, and the regime is quite adept at weathering the storm.<\/p>\n

As with any authoritarian system Iran is concerned about preserving the regime, not about the people of Iran. As long as sanctions don\u2019t lead to an uprising that threatens to violently overthrow the government, they will endure them. Sanctions that inflict some pain on the citizens of Iran would work quite well in a democratic system, but will have little effect in an authoritarian one.<\/p>\n

Military Strike<\/strong><\/p>\n

A military strike by the United States or Israel is becoming increasingly likely. At some point Israel will have to make a decision about whether to bomb Iranian facilities before Iran begins building them so deep underground that Israel’s bombs cannot penetrate. Given domestic politics in Israel, Netanyahu\u2019s history, and the stakes \u2013 Israel\u2019s very survival \u2013 they aren\u2019t going take a back seat on this issue.<\/p>\n

There will be two consequences of bombing Iran. First, the nuclear program will be set back by a few years. Second, Iran will surely bury their new facilities deep enough underground that not even American weapons can destroy them.<\/p>\n

Iran Will Never Give Up Its Nuclear Program<\/strong><\/p>\n

US and EU policy towards Iran is based on the erroneous assumption that Iran is a rational actor that will modify its behavior in response to hardship and incentives. This is a fundamental tenet of diplomacy. Unfortunately, it does not apply in the case of Iran for numerous reasons:<\/p>\n